The white space of the NIE

The National Intelligence Estimate is out and, as expected, it ain’t good. After five pages of context, methodology, and a pretty cover, it offers two pages of assessment. And as Secretary Chertoff’s gut reported earlier, al-Qaida is alive and capable of attacking the United States again. Continue Reading »

Reexamining Baker-Hamilton

An interesting trio of articles about the Iraq Study Group:

  • Senators Alexander and Salazar are leading the effort to reexamine Baker-Hamilton’s recommendations. Leader Reid criticized the proposal, but Mr. Hamilton himself praised the legislation, noting that “The [ISG] report is not out of date.”
  • Gen. Hayden told the group in November 2006 that “the inability of the [Iraqi] government to govern seems irreversible.”
  • The White House has blocked attempts to reconvene the group to make a second assessment.

Also, Baker and Hamilton recently spoke at the National Press Club on June 11th.

RS Morning Brief, 7/15/07

A roundup of the day’s national and international security news: Pakistan ends truce with tribal leaders; Mahdi army becomes enemy #1 in Western Baghdad; Russia pulls out of treaty; DHS loses senior leaders;

Continue Reading »

O Military President, Where Art Thou?

The U.S. has a long tradition of presidents with military background — all in all, approximately 75% of American presidents. War-time presidencies are also a significant American tradition, laden with special responsibilities and often a special relationship with the public. There has been surprisingly little discussion about the absence of military candidates for 2008. Continue Reading »

Metrics, Shmetrics: Let’s talk about some REAL issues in Iraq

Well I’m back from Africa, and in the interest of healthy and spirited debate, I’d like to use my space this week to wholeheartedly disagree with my colleague Sean Kreyling and his July 7th post entitled “Is the US Military using the Wrong Metrics in Iraq?” Sean, I respect your intellect and patriotism, but I think you’re way off the mark on this one. In my humble opinion, you’re missing the forest for the trees and in doing so, only perpetuating the dismally superficial counter-insurgency “debate” that Americans witness every day on the news shows.

To describe a cliche with a cliche, talking about “metrics in Iraq” is like “rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic:” We may come up with some pretty nice designs, but man oh man- we’ve got bigger problems! And by no means do I support the growing voice in Congress predicting “inevitable defeat” in Iraq (As I’ve articulated clearly in “Small Wars Journal” .) But I do contend that unless we drop the semantics and make real reforms to the way we conceive of, plan for, and conduct warfare, well… we’re all sunk.
Continue Reading »

The New Face of Government: Private Contractors

Is it possible that Lockheed Martin has a government contract larger than the GDP of 40 of the world’s poorest countries. Long has been the fear that the government was outsourcing inherently governmental jobs, as big names like Halliburton, Bechtel, Lockheed, and dozens of others have come under scrutingy for no bid contracts. Who is really to blame? Is it the company’s responsibility to be fair or is it the government’s responsibility to manage contracts effectively. It is hard to underestimate the increasing role that contractors play in governing our nation, but the Washington Post is going to take a stab at exposing the contracting world to us.

Instead of writing my normal post this week, I wanted to draw your attention to a new and interesting blog through the Washington Post. The blog is called Government Inc. and was recently launched to shine the bright light on the often dark world of federal contracting. Check it out here: Government Inc.

New York Times Editorial: Iraq War a Lost Cause; White House poised for withdrawals?

In an unsigned, 1,721 word editorial today the New York Times states bluntly: “It is time for the United States to leave Iraq, without any more delay than the Pentagon needs to organize an orderly exit.”

Whatever Bush’s cause was in Iraq, the Times says, “it is lost.”

FLASHBACK: Frontline analysis of the media’s reporting on WMDs in the run-up to the Iraq War.

UPDATE/BREAKING: David Sanger reports in Monday’s New York Times that White House officials “want to forestall G.O.P. defections by announcing an intention to withdraw American troops.”

Measuring Success in Iraq: Is the U.S. Military Using the Wrong “Metrics”?

In a recent briefing, General Peter Pace, the outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had this to say regarding the latest U.S. military surge and counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts:

“If you try to define this in terms of level of violence, you’ve really put yourself on the wrong metric. It isn’t about X number today, Y number tomorrow, because the enemy gets a chance to vote in that,” Pace said. “The metric really should be for Iraqi citizens. Do they feel better about their lives today than they did yesterday? And do they think they’re going to feel better about their lives tomorrow than they do today?”

While Gen. Pace’s specific remarks were an attempt at explaining the recent increase in the overall level of violence seen in Iraq following the surge, the notion that violence is not the sole effective metric is applicable to understanding and gauging U.S. military efforts as well. Continue Reading »

Blogs that make us think

Ms. Tart, a great friend of RoguelyStated, tagged us with a Thinking Blogger Award. We’re flattered, and in turn it’s our duty to tag five other sites. These are plucked from the RS Blogroll, so here are some thoughts on why they’re there:

Counterterrorism Blog is a group of serious people writing - usually in realtime - about ongoing events with broad international security implications. Timely and incisive analysis is never in short supply at CT Blog.

Small Wars Journal is one-stop-shopping for those looking to understand the evolution of warfare and its implications for security policy. RS’ own Fernando Lujan, himself a small wars operator, has contributed to SWJ’s robust dialogue.

Prolific, fiery, engaging, and thought-provoking: Thomas P.M. Barnett is a must-read and (maybe even moreso) a must-watch.

Bored or confused by legal wranglings and court rulings? You don’t have to be - the crew at National Security Advisors can help you sort it out. The courts are the battlefield on which the fate of national security policies is often decided. Best that we keep abreast of what the rulings mean and the National Security Advisors team blogs it so the JD-less among us can understand.

Last but certainly not least is ForeignPolicy.com’s Passport. Their morning brief is amazing, and they meet their stated objective of providing “iconoclastic thinking designed to catch you off guard—and make you think.” Yup.

Others? Post them in the comments.

Dems throw a jab at Bush for Libby commutation … but where’s the knock-out punch?

Independence Day brings two key elements of the American conscience into sharp relief.

First, the history of establishing independence and a new form of government, based truly on the people’s power. It is, in a sense, a celebration not just of independence, but also of the rule of law, of a government held in check by divided branches and separated powers. The Fourth is a celebration of the Constitution and of every part of the country’s history that it laid out — including the President’s power of commutation.

Second, security. Especially after last week’s UK terror plots, the issue of security was front and center as American families came together to celebrate the Fourth. It’s the same security that was recently damaged by — again, the President’s power of commutation.

After the White House announced President Bush’s decision to commute “Scooter” Libby’s sentence, Democratic critics came out with strong attacks, as expected. The good news is that Democrats seem to be getting better at message discipline, jointly assailing the Bush administration for being corrupt and for acting “above the law” — good charges that often hit hard against the secrecy-obsessed and croney-prone administration. With a few days passed and the attacks easing off, the question is whether, by focusing attacks on a key weakness of the Bush Administration, the Democrats missed an even greater opportunity: to overtake a real Republican stronghold, national security. Continue Reading »

The echo of 231-year-old words

The Declaration of Independence
July 4, 2025

“When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world. Continue Reading »

Racial Equality and National Security: The Alarming Decline of Black Americans in the US Military

Lolita C. Baldor of the Associated Press has explored an important, but under-appreciated national security issue for the Washington Post recently concerning the declining number of blacks joining the U.S. military. According to Pentagon data on both reserve and active duty forces, there was a 38 percent decline in recruitment of black Americans between 2001 and 2006. If only active forces are counted, the number of black recruits dropped from more than 31,000 in 2002 to about 23,600 in 2006, almost one-quarter fewer.

This decline should be of concern to national security leaders, but it should also stoke discussion about the relative dormancy of the US racial equality debate. Continue Reading »

Bush Commutes Scooter Libby’s Sentence, No Jail Time Ahead for Former Cheney Aide

President Bush said today that he had used his power of clemency to commute the 30-month sentence for I. Lewis Libby Jr., who was convicted of perjury in the C.I.A. leak case.

Read more here:

NYTimes

WAPO

President Bush’s Statement

Why George Bush Needs a New Dog…and a New Relationship with Putin

“Bigger, Tougher, Stronger, Faster, Meaner.” Those were the words of a boastful Russian President Vladimir Putin in a previous meeting with US President George Bush. Fortunately for the future of diplomatic relations, Putin’s comments were drawing a distinction between Bush’s small lapdog Barney and Putin’s physically superior Labrador. His comments, however, seem fitting to a rapidly changing US-Russia relationship. As the Bush administration prepares for Putin’s visit to Kennebunkport starting today, I’d recommend that President Bush bring a dog and position a bit more worthy of a fight, or at least one that can do more than just bark. Continue Reading »

London Police Defuse Car Bomb(s)

One vehicle was found this morning in London’s theater district and contained canisters of nails and gas. A second suspicious car remains under investigation near Hyde Park. The CT Blog has thorough and ongoing coverage, in addition to the front page stories in the Times and Post.

Mr. Roboto goes to war?

What do you get when you cross a robot that vacuums floors with a stun gun?

One step closer to robots that can choose to exercise lethal force, says John Pike, director of the military research organization GlobalSecurity.org.

The military-industrial complex has already come a long way in robot R&D, but Thursday marked another step down that road when Taser International and iRobot Corp. teamed up to offer stun gun-equipped robots for the military and police forces. Continue Reading »

Lugar pulls the plug; Kilcullen holds up hope

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), minority leader on the Foreign Relations Committee, reversed his long-time support of the Iraq war earlier this week, advocating for a major shift in U.S. strategy and a draw-down of troops as soon as possible. David Kilcullen, Senior Counterinsurgency Advisor for the Multinational Force in Iraq, returned from nearly six weeks on the ground there with a message of optimism about the surge, grounded in operational realities. Their two messages are toe-to-toe on some points, hand-in-hand on others. Both are worth a close read. (Lugar | Kilcullen) Continue Reading »

Committing U.S. Military Personnel to Africa Permanently

“A few years ago, with little fanfare, the United States opened a base in the horn of Africa to kill or capture Al Qaeda fighters. By 2012, the Pentagon will have two dozen such forts. The story of Africa Command, the American military’s new frontier outpost.”

In this month’s Esquire magazine, Thomas P.M. Barnett writes about the U.S. military’s new Africa Command and their initial operations. Barnett sheds light on AfriCom as the Pentagon’s new experiment in fighting what Gen. Abizaid, the former commander of U.S. Central Command, refers to as radical Islam. The new paradigm is one that has the military working under and through the U.S. State Department and on certain U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) missions.

This new approach focuses on using all of the aspects national power - Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economics, known by the acronym DIME - to combat terrorists and foreign fighters in the region, which, as Barnett notes, has been so clearly lacking in America’s recent postwar reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

MORE:

Map: Africa Command: Inside the Mission

Tom Barnett’s Photo Album with CJTF-HOA

C-SPAN interview on Africa Command

RFK Approved CIA Spying on Reporters

Then-Attorney General Robert Kennedy signed off on illegal wiretaps of American journalists, according to the recently declassified CIA “Family Jewels.”

From the declassified CIA documents:

Project Mockingbird, a telephone intercept activity…targeted two Washington-based newsmen who, at the time, had been publishing news articles based on, and frequently quoting, classified [CIA] materials…

Telephone intercept connections were installed at the newsmen’s office and at each of their homes…The connections were established with the assistance of a telephone company official…authority for the activity was Mr. John McCone, Director of Central Intelligence…in coordination with the Attorney General (Mr. Robert Kennedy) [and] the Secretary of Defense (Mr. Robert McNamara)…

From the New York Times Blog:

According to the transcripts of the tapes that President John F. Kennedy secretly recorded in the Oval Office, shortly after 6 p.m. on August 22,1962, JFK and Director of Central Intelligence John McCone discussed a plan for the CIA to wiretap members of the Washington press corps.

“How are we doing with that set-up on the Baldwin business?” the president asked. Four weeks before, Hanson Baldwin, the national security reporter for The New York Times, had published an article on Soviet efforts to protect intercontinental ballistic missile launch sites with concrete bunkers. Baldwin’s highly detailed reporting accurately stated the conclusions of the CIA’s most recent national intelligence estimate.

The president told McCone to set up a domestic task force to stop the flow of secrets from the government to the newspapers. The order violated the agency’s charter, which specifically prohibits domestic spying. Long before Nixon created his “plumbers” unit of CIA veterans to stop news leaks, Kennedy used the agency to spy on Americans.

Family Jewels revealed

The wait is over. At long last, the CIA uncovers 700 pages of nasty secrets, including an apparent plot to use mobsters to assassinate Fidel Castro. Fascinating stuff, all found here. In addition to the “Family Jewels” collection, the CIA has also posted the CESAR-POLO-ESAU papers, which studied Soviet and Chinese leadership from 1953 to 1973. 11,000 pages of classic bedtime reading.