By: Sarada Peri
The National Intelligence Estimate is out and, as expected, it ain’t good. After five pages of context, methodology, and a pretty cover, it offers two pages of assessment. And as Secretary Chertoff’s gut reported earlier, al-Qaida is alive and capable of attacking the United States again. The report also says that al-Qaida leadership has been able to maintain a stronghold in tribal areas of northwest Pakistan. Nothing particularly shocking. Here’s a snippet:
We assess that al-Qa’ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa’ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa’ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.
The fact that one of the biggest current threats is al-Qaida in Iraq, which emerged in 2003 after the invasion, is more than disturbing. While President Bush likes to falsely connect al-Qaida in Iraq to the 9/11 attacks, the rest of us aren’t fooled by such gross oversimplifications. The White House continues to dodge the main point, turning up on Sunday programs or in press conferences to repeat its circuitous logic. But as Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo analyzes in a new video, this is pure nonsense.
The NIE doesn’t offer any such analysis - it merely states the fact of al-Qaida in Iraq getting more dangerous. Nor does it say much that is new. In fact, former White House anti-terror czar Richard Clarke takes a stab at the report’s deafening silence:
“It’s more about what it doesn’t say than what it does say,” says Richard Clarke, the former White House official who is now an ABC News consultant. “What is left out of the version released publicly is the explicit statement that al Qaeda is back and has operations underway,” Clarke says.
Indeed.
One potential consequence of the report is that because it also mentions the growing threats of Hezbollah and other extremist groups, some may read news articles mentioning all of these groups and believe that they all fall under the same umbrella. The truth is naturally more complicated than that, but “the terrorists” became an all-encompassing term a long time ago.
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To further support Sarada Peri’s “gross oversimplifications” charge regarding the Bush administration’s characterizations of Al-Qaeda, take a look at the comments by Ms. Frances Townsend, the administration’s Homeland Security Advisor. In an interview on PBS’s Newshour with Margret Warner, Ms. Townsend stated that she “thinks there’s a tendency to try and suggest that al-Qaida core and al-Qaida in Iraq are two separate things. Let’s step back for a minute, because I think that is not accurate”. For more, check out the Newhour for the full story and decide for yourself.
Posted 17 Jul 2025 at 10:13 pm ¶Post a Comment