Roguely Stated

At first, it seemed like a good week for nonproliferation: the U.S. is taking steps to restart talks with North Korea and Pakistan has agreed to participate in the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (although its military “facilities and activities” are not covered). But NYT’s business section offers a less glowing report…

While America’s sole uranium plant is struggling just to stay afloat, “business is booming” for Russia’s nuclear company Atomstroyexport. The Moscow-based firm, which was once part of the Soviet atomic energy ministry, is infamous for building Iran’s Bushehr reactor. But it is currently also constructing six other nuclear reactors (more, it claims, than GE, Westinghouse, or Siemens) and in talks to build yet more for Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, Malaysia, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa, and Vietnam. Atomstroyexport’s chief executive boasted that his market was part of “a nuclear renaissance.”

The prospect of a Russian-fueled global “nuclear renaissance” has profound implications for nonproliferation. Some nations may use Atomstroyexport’s nuclear reactors for legal and legitimate civilian purposes, such as generating energy, and emitting less carbon into the atmosphere. But some may not. (Or some may begin with truly peaceful intentions and later turn to military uses). And we cannot simply take a country’s word for it: some states may exaggerate their nuclear power for regional respect or deterrence (e.g., Iraq) and others may feign benevolence to avoid international condemnation (e.g., Iran).

Strengthening the nonproliferation regime will require multilateral measures. The Carnegie Endowment has proposed UN action to improve compliance with IAEA rules. The House of Representatives is considering a bill to create global nuclear fuel centers.

We also need to deal directly with Russia directly. At best, Atomstroyexport is merely trying to increase profits and the Russian leadership – for reasons of patronage, leverage, or capitalism – is reluctant to intervene. At worst, the Russian government is intent on starting a “new cold war” by (1) directly spreading nuclear technology and (2) indirectly permitting North Korea and Iran to develop weapons by pretending to play a constructive role but, in actuality, dragging out disarmament talks. Either way, if we avoid dealing with Moscow for too long in the hopes that it will deliver with Tehran and Pyongyang, then Russia’s “nuclear renaissance” may become the new “dark ages” for the rest of the world.

Tags: Atomstroyexport, Moscow, nonproliferation, North Korea, nuclear, Pakistan, Russia
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