Roguely Stated

It takes two to tango, but it only takes one to hire a band, strike up the music, and – if they’re pushy enough – drag a partner onto the dance floor.

Maybe all the talk of a renewed Cold War is too much hype. But with missiles over Moscow and political upset in Ukraine along pro-Russia/”anti”-Russia lines, maybe it’s worth another look.

Tensions with Russia
It’s not hard to make the case that U.S.-Russian friendship isn’t at an all-time high.

Russia tested a new ICBM this week and highlighted its success as a challenge to U.S. intentions to deploy a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Demonstrating a strong appreciation for irony, President Vladimir Putin argued against the U.S. defense shield, stating that “attempts to turn Europe into a powder keg are harmful and dangerous.”

Putin has expressed concern that the defense shield would “completely neutralize” Russia’s nuclear arsenal, even though U.S. officials have promised the shield is intended to help protect Russia and European countries, not restrain them.

Last week, Putin said the U.S. risked a “new spiral of the arms race.” His foreign minister went one step further: “the arms race is starting again.”

(Note: Last week, the Senate Armed Services Committee cut the Bush administration’s request for the missile shield by $85 million, and its request for $310 million is expected to receive even deeper cuts.)

Missile tests aren’t the only red flag coming out of Russia. In a statement to the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe last week, Sarah E. Mendelson, a senior fellow with CSIS’ Russia and Eurasia Program, talked about Russia’s “authoritarian drift” and its “trends toward nationalism and xenophobia.”

Political Upset in the Ukraine
Political developments in Ukraine in the past few months would make great political theater – if only they weren’t so serious. The most recent highlights?

In April, President Viktor Yushchenko ordered the dissolution of Parliament, sparking weeks of turmoil and protest by parties that support him and parties that support his rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. (Background note: in 2004, Yanukovych won presidential elections, but Ukraine’s Supreme Court declared the results fraudulent; in a second election, Yushchenko overcame Yanukovych. Not surprisingly, tensions have been high since that time).

In late May, Yushchenko fired top federal prosecutor Svyatoslav Piskun, but Interior Minister Vasyl Tshushko called in riot police to defend Piskun. The new prosecutor, Viktor Shernchuk, is invesetigating Tshushko for abuses of power related to the troop movements, though Tshushko is already in hospital after suffering a heart attack.

The resulting political turmoil led to an agreement by Yushchenko and Yanukovych to hold parliamentary elections on September 30. But saying that September elections will keep the tug-of-war quiet until then is like saying that Democrats and Republicans will stop arguing about Iraq and wait quietly for General Petraeus’ September review of progress there.

Leveraging Gas Supplies?
Tensions with Russia are high, and Ukrainian politics are sorely divided along pro-Russian (Yanukovych) and “anti”-Russian (Yushchenko) lines. But it’s not a Cold War scenario unless Russia gets involved, … right?

Valery Golubev, deputy chairman of the Management Committee of Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly, had this to say in April:

“If [Ukrainian] politicians make a decision to establish closer economic ties between our countries, this will guarantee lower gas prices. However, if the politicians decide to separate these ties, then the price of gas for Ukraine will be same as for Germany. Does Ukraine really want this? I want to stress that Russia does not need this.”

This isn’t the first time – nor likely the last time – that Russia has used gas prices as leverage in Ukraine. Golubev doesn’t speak for the Russian government, but he’s probably not out of touch: he’s a former KGB officer, but he also worked with Putin and the current head of Gazprom in the St. Petersburg Mayor’s office.

Gazprom and Russia could be flexing muscles just to gain political allies in Ukraine, or they could be looking even more specifically at gas pipelines through that country. The stakes are high: Gazprom has controlled as much as a third of the world’s gas reserves, and Western Europe has often been held captive by its dependence on Russian gas supplies. Control of pipelines in the region have always weighed heavily in natural resource and political battles.

Tango into Ukraine?
President Bush has invited Putin to a July meeting in Maine. By that time, the U.S. will have had time to digest recent events in Ukraine and reconsider whether it wants to tango Cold War-style or not. In the meantime, Russia may be calling up the band and picking a tune, so the U.S. should keep a close eye on the dance floor. We’re good at watching gas prices at home; we’d best watch them abroad, too.