Roguely Stated

Today, Venezuela decided to leave the IMF and World Bank (LA Times) and nationalized the last of its private oil fields (WaPo). There are essentially three ways to interpret this development:

1. as the culmination of Chavez’s oil-fueled, leftist-cum-Maoist push and as an anti-Western gesture, with the most serious fallout being limited to Latin America. Those who stand to gain from the deal include Brazil, Iran, Russia, Cuba (WSJ), and China (Oil Drum).
2. as part of a pattern of behavior by loose regional coalitions that are “pushing back” on American strategic power: the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia (see missile defense program IHT,
   WaPo).
3. as the mere exchange of favors on a global scale and in the form of oil exports — a final era of petroleum “logrolling” in an increasingly post-Kyoto world. Thus far, the price of oil in the U.S. seems to be unaffected by Chavez’ decision (Bloomberg).

Under any of these interpretations, the U.S. should take steps to repair gaps in the Intelligence Community, such as coverage of Latin America (see Douglas Farah’s diagnosis of the problem). America should also redouble its efforts to become energy independent and advance renewable energy technologies. That way, the United States can be freer to make geo-strategic choices as well as respond effectively to autocrats like Chavez.